BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LBLucky Birdwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 10 games
Marcioften banned
bgod · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 9 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Lucky Bird
Pucksignature
BlackSoul · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 8 games
Tiny
FrancisLee · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 5 games
Clockwerk
FrancisLee · 5 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 5 games
Zeusoften banned
FrancisLee · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
375 picks · 579 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 239 bans
Undying
330 picks · 570 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 331 bans
Enigma
243 picks · 759 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 448 bans
Death Prophet
214 picks · 324 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:38
The Cut 38%Lucky Bird 62%
The model gave 62% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackScourge McDuck
Naga SirenRises
ZeusPiPi
TuskBlackSoul
Hoodwinkbgod
SnapfireWij
Treant ProtectorSave
DisruptorYadomi
Game 2prediction correct9:38
The Cut 42%Lucky Bird 58%
The model gave 58% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 26:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerScourge McDuck
UrsaRises
KunkkaPiPi
TinyBlackSoul
Witch DoctorSave
RubickWij
Nyx Assassinbgod
UndyingYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 67%
Series resultLucky Bird 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2