BTS Pro Series Season 12: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SG e-sportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 16 games
Marcioften banned
bgod · 10 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 9 games
Techiessignature
bgod · 9 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
615 picks · 467 bans
Marci
460 picks · 673 bans
Dawnbreaker
382 picks · 538 bans
Puck
374 picks · 830 bans
Winter Wyvern
320 picks · 402 bans
Death Prophet
299 picks · 485 bans
Zeus
268 picks · 349 bans
Dazzle
260 picks · 163 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 39%
Hero pool strength56% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:45
The Cut 38%SG e-sports 62%
The model gave 62% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 37:56.
Game 2prediction correct23:36
The Cut 38%SG e-sports 62%
The model gave 62% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 35:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 62%
Series resultSG e-sports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2