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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 9 games
22%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 9 games
44%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 6 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
high_shaggy · 6 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Scourge McDuck · 5 games
40%

Team DogChamp

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 10 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 10 games
70%
Marci
Marcisignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 8 games
75%
Tinker
Tinkersignature
RCY · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
665 picks · 427 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
577 picks · 543 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 440 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
475 picks · 538 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
388 picks · 386 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
380 picks · 207 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
345 picks · 521 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 220 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total75% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:29
The Cut 35%Team DogChamp 65%
The model gave 65% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 37:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomhigh_shaggy
52% · 203 games52% · 174 games
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackScourge McDuck
55% · 59 games45% · 311 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterChives
47% · 245 games53% · 72 games
Centaur WarrunnerITALIANO GANGSTA
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickSave
51% · 377 games54% · 285 games
Treant Protectoryarintheslayer
Treant Protector
Silencer
Silencerempyrean5
47% · 137 games47% · 179 games
EnchantressBloody Nine
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct19:31
The Cut 35%Team DogChamp 65%
The model gave 65% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerScourge McDuck
51% · 147 games54% · 138 games
PudgeYuma
Pudge
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
45% · 350 games48% · 421 game
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterChives
51% · 245 games52% · 140 games
VisageITALIANO GANGSTA
Visage
Rubick
RubickSave
47% · 365 games56% · 315 games
Treant Protectoryarintheslayer
Treant Protector
Silencer
Silencerempyrean5
49% · 160 games49% · 253 games
Crystal MaidenBloody Nine
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 75%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2