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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 1:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 10 games
20%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 8 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 8 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 8 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 8 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Jubei · 6 games
33%

TiltedBoys

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ezekiel · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Axe
Axe
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1004 picks · 702 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
638 picks · 465 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
575 picks · 929 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
564 picks · 415 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 409 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
528 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1215 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 386 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:16
The Cut 40%TiltedBoys 60%
The model gave 60% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by The Cut in 41:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinScourge McDuck
50% · 22 games52% · 71 game
AlchemistEzekiel
Alchemist
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painhigh_shaggy
60% · 6 games
Underlord
UnderlordITALIANO GANGSTA
43% · 10 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJubei
43% · 33 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 66%
Series resultThe Cut 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1