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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Silencer
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 14 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 12 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 11 games
36%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 11 games
64%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
high_shaggy · 8 games
88%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Sammyboy · 19 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
FrancisLee · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
Babitich · 10 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Sammyboy · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 9 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sammyboy · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 476 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
605 picks · 639 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
568 picks · 1111 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
524 picks · 494 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
519 picks · 1234 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1047 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
461 picks · 679 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
451 picks · 920 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% The Cut
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total54% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:31
The Cut 49%Wildcard Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 40:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackScourge McDuck
51% · 65 games49% · 68 games
TerrorbladeSammyboy
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMTD
53% · 102 games48% · 66 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Clinkz
Clinkzbgod
39% · 41 game57% · 53 games
TechiesFrancisLee
Techies
Elder Titan
Elder Titanempyrean5
61% · 45 games43% · 66 games
EnigmaSunlight
Enigma
Game 2prediction correct12:28
The Cut 48%Wildcard Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeScourge McDuck
49% · 169 games34% · 15 games
MuertaSammyboy
Muerta
Tiny
TinyMTD
51% · 276 games50% · 208 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Clinkz
Clinkzbgod
40% · 49 games51% · 298 games
EnchantressFrancisLee
Enchantress
Undying
Undyingempyrean5
49% · 210 games60% · 183 games
TechiesSunlight
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 54%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2