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Asian Dragon Series: Continental Collision · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The MongolZ

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 8 games
38%
Puck
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hishge · 6 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 6 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 5 games
20%
Doom
Doomoften banned
JG · 5 games
40%

Execration

Marci
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 12 games
42%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Tino- · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
33%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 9 games
89%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 7 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
489 picks · 632 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
469 picks · 404 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
460 picks · 584 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
450 picks · 553 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 503 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 789 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
411 picks · 918 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 234 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% The MongolZ
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total62% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:41
The MongolZ 44%Execration 56%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 47:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaBob
38% · 67 games54% · 102 games
TerrorbladeAkashi
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierJG
49% · 256 games53% · 161 game
Centaur WarrunnerTino-
Centaur Warrunner
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinDJ
55% · 59 games46% · 43 games
ZeusShanks
Zeus
55% · 76 games
Elder Titancml
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct29:45
The MongolZ 44%Execration 56%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 46:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingBob
51% · 179 games45% · 52 games
Sand KingTino-
Sand King
Magnus
MagnusJG
50% · 183 games53% · 92 games
BristlebackAkashi
Bristleback
Riki
RikiDJ
49% · 27 games53% · 162 games
ClockwerkShanks
Clockwerk
45% · 83 games
Lichcml
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 62%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2