ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The MongolZ
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
JG · 4 games
InterActive Philippines
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
476 picks · 392 bans
Clockwerk
439 picks · 549 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 502 bans
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 635 bans
Lion
391 picks · 207 bans
Phoenix
380 picks · 429 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 581 bans
Beastmaster
348 picks · 888 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% InterActive Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% The MongolZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:33
The MongolZ 56%InterActive Philippines 44%
The model gave 56% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 54:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth SpiritBob
PuckNishababy
PhoenixJG
MarciHishge
Game 2prediction correct29:19
The MongolZ 57%InterActive Philippines 43%
The model gave 57% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 29:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerJG
Monkey KingNishababy
Ember SpiritBob
MagnusHishge
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 65%
Series resultThe MongolZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2