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Asian Dragon Series: Continental Collision · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZwin 2:0
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The MongolZ

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 9 games
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
29%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hishge · 6 games
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
JG · 6 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 5 games
20%

OG

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 18 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 13 games
23%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
xNova · 11 games
36%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 641 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
471 picks · 402 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
464 picks · 584 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
453 picks · 559 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 509 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 790 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
412 picks · 929 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 39%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:17
The MongolZ 35%OG 65%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 37:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckBob
53% · 230 games49% · 152 games
Gyrocopter23savage
Gyrocopter
Razor
RazorJG
47% · 196 games62% · 93 games
Monkey KingNine
Monkey King
Marci
MarciDJ
49% · 155 games51% · 56 games
EarthshakerCeb
Earthshaker
44% · 84 games
MuertaDaze
Muerta
46% · 196 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed34:29
The MongolZ 33%OG 67%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 47:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaBob
41% · 148 games64% · 42 games
Spectre23savage
Spectre
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJG
45% · 167 games59% · 104 games
Centaur WarrunnerCeb
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDJ
50% · 396 games51% · 248 games
TinyNine
Tiny
54% · 190 games
MuertaDaze
Muerta
48% · 127 games
LichxNova
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 79%
Series resultThe MongolZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2