MESA Invitational 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
The MongolZloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The MongolZ
Batrideroften banned
Hishge · 1 game
Brewmaster
JG · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 1 game
Yakult Brothers
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 12 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 11 games
Muerta
BoBoKa · 11 games
Tusksignature
Poloson · 10 games
Alchemistsignature
flyfly · 9 games
Lunasignature
flyfly · 9 games
Medusasignature
flyfly · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
485 picks · 674 bans
Clockwerk
421 picks · 496 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 538 bans
Dark Willow
356 picks · 184 bans
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 343 bans
Enchantress
312 picks · 596 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:28
The MongolZ 30%Yakult Brothers 70%
The model gave 70% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 55:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackJG
Medusaflyfly
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
InvokerEmo
ClockwerkHishge
Magnuszeal
53% · 74 games
Elder Titan天命
51% · 129 games
LionBoBoKa
Game 2prediction correct10:23
The MongolZ 30%Yakult Brothers 70%
The model gave 70% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierJG
Morphlingflyfly
InvokerWonder'boy
LinaEmo
Shadow DemonHishge
Enigmazeal
46% · 124 games
Pugna天命
52% · 250 games
ClockwerkBoBoKa
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 83%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2