Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionTOThe Oversightwin 2:0
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Oversight
Crystal Maiden
sunset · 5 games
Tiny
N1NE · 5 games
Treant Protector
antoha · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
layme · 3 games
Marcioften banned
Skyward · 3 games
Mirana
antoha · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Atoufix · 3 games
Rubick
N1NE · 3 games
Lucky Bird
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
Tiny
BlackSoul · 6 games
Treant Protector
Yadomi · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 5 games
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 5 games
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
Snapfire
Yadomi · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
empyrean5 · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
994 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
642 picks · 467 bans
Nature's Prophet
590 picks · 935 bans
Disruptor
546 picks · 407 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 414 bans
Snapfire
527 picks · 371 bans
Death Prophet
520 picks · 1208 bans
Clockwerk
505 picks · 382 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:23
The Oversight 34%Lucky Bird 66%
The model gave 66% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by The Oversight in 49:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistSkyward
Naga SirenRises
Bounty HunterAtoufix
BeastmasterSatoshi-
51% · 29 games
Ember SpiritBlackSoul
54% · 29 games
Undyingempyrean5
Game 2prediction missed34:11
The Oversight 35%Lucky Bird 65%
The model gave 65% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by The Oversight in 22:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistSkyward
MeepoBlackSoul
Bounty HunterAtoufix
SlarkRises
38% · 14 games
BatriderSatoshi-
42% · 18 games
Crystal Maidenempyrean5
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 78%
Series resultThe Oversight 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2