BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
The Primeloss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MCMoon Chaserswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Prime
Lunaoften banned
Rusman · 3 games
Lion
BARBIE-Usagi · 2 games
Mirana
BARBIE-Usagi · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
Clockwerk
BARBIE-Usagi · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Rusman · 1 game
Moon Chasers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
463 picks · 183 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 206 bans
Mars
352 picks · 562 bans
Puck
338 picks · 829 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 467 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 240 bans
Nyx Assassin
307 picks · 603 bans
Grimstroke
292 picks · 275 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 25%
Hero pool strength59% Moon Chasers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% The Prime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:39
The Prime 57%Moon Chasers 43%
The model gave 57% on The Prime — the game was taken by Moon Chasers in 29:26.
Game 2prediction missed37:28
The Prime 57%Moon Chasers 43%
The model gave 57% on The Prime — the game was taken by Moon Chasers in 30:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Prime · 57%
Series resultMoon Chasers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2