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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
The Primeloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Prime

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Varizh · 2 games
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Rusman · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BARBIE-Usagi · 2 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Varizh · 2 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Varizh · 1 game
0%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 3 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
343 · 3 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 3 games
0%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 3 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ghost · 3 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
AlaCrity · 2 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
100%
Abaddon
Abaddon
343 · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
51 picks · 87 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
41 picks · 98 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
37 picks · 30 bans
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
37 picks · 55 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
28 picks · 57 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
27 picks · 37 bans
58%
Undying
Undying
27 picks · 51 bans
45%
Mirana
Mirana
26 picks · 32 bans
43%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 45%
Hero pool strength62% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:34
The Prime 38%Nigma Galaxy SEA 62%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautRusman
little data50% · 6 games
RikiGhost
Riki
Kunkka
KunkkaAzur4
little datalittle data
Queen of PainAlaCrity
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsBARBIE-Usagi
43% · 9 games71% · 3 games
Rubick343
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkVarizh
little data
Game 2prediction correct21:34
The Prime 42%Nigma Galaxy SEA 58%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRusman
little datalittle data
Anti-MageGhost
Anti-Mage
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAzur4
little datalittle data
Storm SpiritAlaCrity
Storm Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderBARBIE-Usagi
little datalittle data
Ogre Magi343
Ogre Magi
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionVarizh
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 66%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2