BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
The Primeloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TDTeam Dwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Prime
Mirana
BARBIE-Usagi · 4 games
Lunaoften banned
Rusman · 3 games
Lion
BARBIE-Usagi · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
Clockwerk
BARBIE-Usagi · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 1 game
Team D
Phoenix
Ponlo · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
Winter Wyvern
Ponlo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
462 picks · 182 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 205 bans
Mars
351 picks · 556 bans
Puck
334 picks · 822 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 471 bans
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 601 bans
Tiny
306 picks · 240 bans
Grimstroke
287 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Team D
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team D
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:35
The Prime 45%Team D 55%
The model gave 55% on Team D — the game was taken by Team D in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordRusman
AxevtFαded
PuckAzur4
Nyx AssassinPonlo
LionBARBIE-Usagi
Game 2prediction correct22:31
The Prime 44%Team D 56%
The model gave 56% on Team D — the game was taken by Team D in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaRusman
Anti-MagevtFαded
Ember SpiritAzur4
LionPonlo
TuskBARBIE-Usagi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam D · 58%
Series resultTeam D 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2