Riyadh Masters 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
TheRuneloss 0:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Dragon Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TheRune
No games played over 6 months.
Dragon Esports
Gyrocopter
paw · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Norma · 1 game
Zeusoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
410 picks · 639 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 366 bans
Batrider
394 picks · 698 bans
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 562 bans
Rubick
367 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
Shadow Demon
330 picks · 930 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:32
TheRune 39%Dragon Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 24:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 61%
Series resultDragon Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1