ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
TheRuneloss 0:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nightshadewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TheRune
No games played over 6 months.
Nightshade
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 377 bans
Grimstroke
178 picks · 161 bans
Sven
170 picks · 247 bans
Dark Willow
166 picks · 70 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 236 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% TheRune
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Nightshade
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:38
TheRune 49%Nightshade 51%
The model gave 51% on Nightshade — the game was taken by Nightshade in 30:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteNightshade · 51%
Series resultNightshade 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1