Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thiuth Gamingloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thiuth Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
nouns
Tusk
Gunnar · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Moo · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 6 games
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 6 games
Chenoften banned
Husky · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Husky · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
365 picks · 347 bans
Tusk
350 picks · 338 bans
Mirana
251 picks · 246 bans
Rubick
230 picks · 188 bans
Crystal Maiden
228 picks · 148 bans
Pangolier
208 picks · 549 bans
Leshrac
204 picks · 426 bans
Snapfire
202 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Thiuth Gaming 17%nouns 83%
The model gave 83% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 29:32.
Game 2prediction correct35:8
Thiuth Gaming 17%nouns 83%
The model gave 83% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 31:06.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 83%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2