PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTThrivingloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Kukuyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thriving
No games played over 6 months.
Team Kukuys
Marssignature
JG · 9 games
Tusk
DJ · 8 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Gabbi · 7 games
Disruptor
DJ · 6 games
Pucksignature
Armel · 6 games
Snapfire
DJ · 6 games
Bane
Kuku · 5 games
Leshrac
Armel · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
551 picks · 834 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 368 bans
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 642 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 580 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 763 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 584 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 545 bans
Mars
343 picks · 480 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Thriving 27%Team Kukuys 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys.
Game 2prediction correct
Thriving 27%Team Kukuys 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 73%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2