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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balrogsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Michael · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 13 games
46%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 11 games
45%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Michael · 10 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 8 games
50%

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Demon · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 9 games
67%
Silencer
Silencer
ShakaLord · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Demon · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
760 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 468 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
425 picks · 1005 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 379 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 942 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
396 picks · 605 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
391 picks · 602 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
386 picks · 207 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:15
Thunder Awaken 56%Balrogs 44%
The model gave 56% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 29:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSmiling Knight
49% · 52 games50% · 32 games
Troll WarlordDM
Troll Warlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterILICH-
54% · 262 games53% · 60 games
Void SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
Void Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixMjz
45% · 125 games51% · 235 games
RubickDemon
Rubick
48% · 112 games
Crystal MaidenShakaLord
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct22:12
Thunder Awaken 57%Balrogs 43%
The model gave 57% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 39:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSmiling Knight
50% · 64 games50% · 110 games
TerrorbladeDM
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark SeerILICH-
51% · 68 games52% · 125 games
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
Pangolier
Disruptor
DisruptorMjz
49% · 234 games48% · 55 games
Keeper of the LightDemon
Keeper of the Light
50% · 76 games
SilencerShakaLord
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 64%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2