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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
ILICH- · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 7 games
86%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
29%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Mjz · 5 games
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
25%

BETBOOM TEAM

Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 36 games
69%
Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 29 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 29 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 29 games
72%
Undying
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
74%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Save- · 26 games
81%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
65%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Pure~ · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
257 picks · 133 bans
43%
Pangolier
Pangolier
189 picks · 384 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
181 picks · 257 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
169 picks · 351 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
168 picks · 303 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 226 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
161 picks · 95 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:25
Thunder Awaken 31%BETBOOM TEAM 69%
The model gave 69% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 31:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
56% · 63 games52% · 139 games
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterILICH-
39% · 49 games45% · 7 games
Lone DruidPure~
Lone Druid
Enchantress
EnchantressMjz
55% · 121 game45% · 14 games
Night StalkerNightfall
Night Stalker
39% · 42 games
Vengeful SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Vengeful Spirit
60% · 31 game
IoSave-
Io
Game 2prediction correct22:27
Thunder Awaken 26%BETBOOM TEAM 74%
The model gave 74% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 57:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSmiling Knight
47% · 63 games60% · 15 games
MuertaNightfall
Muerta
Primal Beast
Primal BeastILICH-
51% · 195 games51% · 152 games
BeastmasterPure~
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixMjz
40% · 156 games56% · 35 games
Earth SpiritgpK~
Earth Spirit
55% · 129 games
Treant ProtectorTORONTOTOKYO
Treant Protector
53% · 83 games
TechiesSave-
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 85%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2