BTS Pro Series Season 10. Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hokoriloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marssignature
DarkMago · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 13 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 13 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 12 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 9 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
538 picks · 365 bans
Queen of Pain
474 picks · 573 bans
Mars
441 picks · 595 bans
Weaver
416 picks · 721 bans
Kunkka
350 picks · 538 bans
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 573 bans
Snapfire
333 picks · 165 bans
Wraith King
278 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 47%
Hero pool strength60% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total82% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:21
Thunder Awaken 82%Hokori 18%
The model gave 82% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Hokori in 32:14.
Game 2prediction correct38:23
Thunder Awaken 82%Hokori 18%
The model gave 82% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 34:05.
Game 3prediction correct42:6
Thunder Awaken 82%Hokori 18%
The model gave 82% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 28:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 82%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3