Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hokoriloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 18 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 18 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 17 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 16 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 15 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 13 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 10 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 451 bans
Mars
492 picks · 694 bans
Bane
465 picks · 285 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 531 bans
Sand King
405 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 642 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 623 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 45%
Hero pool strength64% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total84% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
Thunder Awaken 84%Hokori 16%
The model gave 84% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 26:22.
Game 2prediction missed27:28
Thunder Awaken 84%Hokori 16%
The model gave 84% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Hokori in 45:36.
Game 3prediction correct41:17
Thunder Awaken 84%Hokori 16%
The model gave 84% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 29:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 84%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3