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BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamousloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 20 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 18 games
61%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panda · 17 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 15 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 14 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 12 games
50%

Infamous

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Oscar · 11 games
36%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mariano · 8 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Prada · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Genek · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 5 games
40%
Windranger
Windranger
sl4d1n- · 5 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 4 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
377 picks · 603 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
317 picks · 204 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
311 picks · 559 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
250 picks · 478 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
239 picks · 356 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
214 picks · 725 bans
59%
Tusk
Tusk
213 picks · 128 bans
54%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
212 picks · 264 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total68% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:5
Thunder Awaken 60%Infamous 40%
The model gave 60% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 20:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkSmiling Knight
57% · 29 games54% · 40 games
Shadow FiendMnz
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomILICH-
42% · 105 games57% · 38 games
BroodmotherOscar
Broodmother
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMichael
42% · 208 games57% · 65 games
Treant ProtectorMjz
Treant Protector
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAccel
46% · 48 games52% · 247 games
Tinysl4d1n-
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct41:25
Thunder Awaken 62%Infamous 38%
The model gave 62% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSmiling Knight
55% · 62 games41% · 67 games
PudgeMnz
Pudge
Pangolier
PangolierILICH-
51% · 203 games52% · 65 games
Primal BeastOscar
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
45% · 97 games48% · 230 games
Ember Spiritsl4d1n-
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroAccel
53% · 73 games55% · 73 games
Crystal MaidenMjz
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 68%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2