?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Keyd Starswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 10 games
90%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Michael · 8 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Mjz · 7 games
57%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mjz · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
60%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
20%

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfire
FCR · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 7 games
86%
Mirana
Mirana
Kingrd · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
FCR · 6 games
83%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
506 picks · 541 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
451 picks · 225 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 702 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 626 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
340 picks · 709 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
338 picks · 346 bans
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
330 picks · 788 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
323 picks · 516 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 75%
Hero pool strength50% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total67% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:25
Thunder Awaken 60%Keyd Stars 40%
The model gave 60% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 51:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
47% · 48 games63% · 53 games
Naga SirenCostabile
Naga Siren
Mars
MarsILICH-
38% · 136 games56% · 139 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMjz
48% · 177 games53% · 26 games
ViperFCR
Viper
41% · 23 games
Earth SpiritKingrd
Earth Spirit
59% · 120 games
DisruptorKJ
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed20:36
Thunder Awaken 58%Keyd Stars 42%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
47% · 148 games46% · 27 games
GyrocopterCostabile
Gyrocopter
Doom
DoomILICH-
48% · 248 games48% · 244 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMjz
51% · 205 games63% · 64 games
VisageFCR
Visage
45% · 33 games
Vengeful SpiritKJ
Vengeful Spirit
51% · 233 games
TuskKingrd
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed14:34
Thunder Awaken 59%Keyd Stars 41%
The model gave 59% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 52:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
45% · 47 games60% · 7 games
Troll WarlordCostabile
Troll Warlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerILICH-
52% · 77 games50% · 28 games
Queen of Pain4nalog
Queen of Pain
Lion
LionMjz
48% · 22 games43% · 17 games
DawnbreakerFCR
Dawnbreaker
45% · 60 games
TuskKingrd
Tusk
63% · 34 games
Treant ProtectorKJ
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 67%
Series resultKeyd Stars 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3