?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Latam Defendersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
40%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
MoOz · 4 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Frank · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
MoOz · 3 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 3 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Leostyle · 2 games
100%

Latam Defenders

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 6 games
0%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
Moonlight · 5 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Moonlight · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
306 picks · 630 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
288 picks · 359 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
249 picks · 429 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
235 picks · 188 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
205 picks · 107 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
200 picks · 605 bans
61%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
196 picks · 389 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
191 picks · 228 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 35%
Hero pool strength62% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:11
Thunder Awaken 65%Latam Defenders 35%
The model gave 65% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 25:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMnz
47% · 35 games41% · 47 games
UrsaCucahook
Ursa
Puck
PuckLeostyle
45% · 71 gamelittle data
Centaur WarrunnerValquiria
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierFrank
42% · 26 games52% · 86 games
Shadow ShamanMoonlight
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
TuskMoOz
54% · 11 games63% · 31 game
EnchantressAretes
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixMjz
69% · 21 game
Game 2prediction correct34:11
Thunder Awaken 66%Latam Defenders 34%
The model gave 66% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 26:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverMnz
39% · 18 games44% · 47 games
RikiCucahook
Riki
Puck
PuckLeostyle
56% · 65 games46% · 55 games
TidehunterValquiria
Tidehunter
Mars
MarsFrank
60% · 71 game47% · 55 games
MiranaMoonlight
Mirana
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMoOz
little data49% · 64 games
OracleAretes
Oracle
Phoenix
PhoenixMjz
48% · 67 games
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 74%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2