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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mad Kingsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Michael · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 13 games
46%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 11 games
45%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Michael · 10 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 8 games
50%

Mad Kings

Rubick
Rubick
Gardick · 21 game
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 18 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 17 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Gardick · 16 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 15 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 13 games
23%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Gardick · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
740 picks · 610 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 478 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1024 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 977 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 375 bans
53%
Doom
Doom
397 picks · 657 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
393 picks · 607 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 205 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:7
Thunder Awaken 54%Mad Kings 46%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 25:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidILICH-
52% · 21 game55% · 26 games
Shadow FiendDaaD-
Shadow Fiend
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
44% · 19 games60% · 6 games
MedusaArzenT
Medusa
Oracle
OracleMjz
46% · 15 games46% · 19 games
Void SpiritPiPi
Void Spirit
50% · 4 games
Earth SpiritGenek
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct24:11
Thunder Awaken 56%Mad Kings 44%
The model gave 56% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 27:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
50% · 73 games52% · 47 games
SvenDaaD-
Sven
Beastmaster
BeastmasterILICH-
50% · 223 games51% · 149 games
PuckPiPi
Puck
Disruptor
DisruptorMjz
52% · 176 games51% · 200 games
DoomArzenT
Doom
44% · 76 games
TechiesGenek
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 60%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2