ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 1:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Mind Gamesloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 15 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 14 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 10 games
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
457 picks · 626 bans
Bane
455 picks · 281 bans
Tiny
425 picks · 484 bans
Sand King
394 picks · 518 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 781 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 543 bans
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 518 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 488 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 40%
Hero pool strength69% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Thunder Awaken 86%Mind Games 14%
The model gave 86% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 86%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1