?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Mars
Marsoften banned
Frank · 15 games
27%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 7 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
17%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
0%

SG e-sports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
336 picks · 492 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
296 picks · 168 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
286 picks · 224 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
276 picks · 617 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
254 picks · 384 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
248 picks · 721 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
222 picks · 300 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
217 picks · 137 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 23%
Hero pool strength57% SG e-sports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total87% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:16
Thunder Awaken 87%SG e-sports 13%
The model gave 87% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 31:27.
Game 2prediction correct20:15
Thunder Awaken 87%SG e-sports 13%
The model gave 87% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 31:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 87%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2