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BTS Pro Series Season 10. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 16 games
63%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 10 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 10 games
70%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 9 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Matthew · 7 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Pakazs · 7 games
57%

Team DogChamp

Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
yarintheslayer · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
yarintheslayer · 6 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
67%
Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 4 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Lich
Lich
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
548 picks · 373 bans
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
477 picks · 571 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
448 picks · 617 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
429 picks · 812 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 171 bans
44%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 574 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
341 picks · 543 bans
53%
Wraith King
Wraith King
282 picks · 343 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:5
Thunder Awaken 70%Team DogChamp 30%
The model gave 70% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 10:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarPakazs
62% · 25 games66% · 12 games
RikiStoneBank
Riki
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkMago
60% · 56 games42% · 116 games
Axelukiluki
Axe
Snapfire
SnapfireSacred
47% · 104 games48% · 166 games
EnchantressBloody Nine
Enchantress
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMatthew
45% · 65 games55% · 41 game
Shadow Shamanyarintheslayer
Shadow Shaman
Abaddon
AbaddonPanda
49% · 85 games
Game 2prediction correct51:22
Thunder Awaken 69%Team DogChamp 31%
The model gave 69% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
48% · 91 game50% · 85 games
Phantom LancerStoneBank
Phantom Lancer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSacred
49% · 58 games42% · 52 games
Keeper of the Lightyarintheslayer
Keeper of the Light
Leshrac
LeshracDarkMago
51% · 53 games56% · 93 games
Dark Seerlukiluki
Dark Seer
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMatthew
48% · 43 games56% · 33 games
WarlockBloody Nine
Warlock
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanda
46% · 18 games
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 83%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2