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The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 28 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 27 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 20 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panda · 18 games
56%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Panda · 14 games
79%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 14 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
79%

Team Secret

Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 19 games
79%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Crystallis · 15 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Zayac · 15 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 14 games
93%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 379 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
473 picks · 697 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
315 picks · 526 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
300 picks · 468 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
284 picks · 652 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
272 picks · 375 bans
46%
Enigma
Enigma
270 picks · 855 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 372 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:38
Thunder Awaken 44%Team Secret 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 44:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPakazs
44% · 117 games56% · 162 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Mars
MarsDarkMago
48% · 231 game49% · 84 games
Drow RangerCrystallis
Drow Ranger
Pangolier
PangolierSacred
55% · 175 games49% · 248 games
MarciResolut1on
Marci
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
50% · 207 games51% · 117 games
Earth SpiritZayac
Earth Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
40% · 70 games53% · 189 games
DisruptorPuppey
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct12:41
Thunder Awaken 42%Team Secret 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkPakazs
58% · 41 game57% · 63 games
LeshracResolut1on
Leshrac
Zeus
ZeusDarkMago
47% · 100 games48% · 72 games
UrsaCrystallis
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterSacred
39% · 116 games54% · 112 games
KunkkaNisha
Kunkka
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
45% · 78 games53% · 164 games
MarciZayac
Marci
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMatthew
57% · 126 games40% · 50 games
SilencerPuppey
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 61%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2