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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
Frank · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 13 games
77%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 9 games
89%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Leostyle · 8 games
63%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 8 games
88%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 31 game
81%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 18 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 17 games
76%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 191 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 134 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
298 picks · 604 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
282 picks · 623 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 360 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
279 picks · 469 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 241 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
252 picks · 360 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:17
Thunder Awaken 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMnz
52% · 143 games50% · 132 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Snapfire
SnapfireLeostyle
54% · 145 games59% · 84 games
RazorTORONTOTOKYO
Razor
Tidehunter
TidehunterFrank
54% · 133 games40% · 142 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Lion
LionMoOz
52% · 304 games44% · 163 games
HoodwinkMiposhka
Hoodwink
Omniknight
OmniknightMjz
56% · 11 games44% · 215 games
PhoenixMira
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct23:40
Thunder Awaken 36%Team Spirit 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMnz
49% · 40 games57% · 78 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Morphling
MorphlingLeostyle
49% · 102 games46% · 176 games
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Void Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingFrank
48% · 56 games44% · 79 games
BloodseekerCollapse
Bloodseeker
Mirana
MiranaMoOz
56% · 111 games50% · 100 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Pangolier
PangolierMjz
49% · 137 games49% · 13 games
ChenMiposhka
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2