BTS Pro Series Season 10. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 10 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 9 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Matthew · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Pakazs · 6 games
The Cut
Snapfire
Giant · 9 games
Marssignature
dnm · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Bristlebacksignature
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
dnm · 3 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
dnm · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
555 picks · 388 bans
Queen of Pain
466 picks · 568 bans
Mars
453 picks · 633 bans
Weaver
434 picks · 823 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 180 bans
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 571 bans
Kunkka
341 picks · 543 bans
Wraith King
283 picks · 335 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:11
Thunder Awaken 70%The Cut 30%
The model gave 70% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinPakazs
TerrorbladeScourge McDuck
MarsDarkMago
Iobgod
Sand KingSacred
SnapfireMatthew
DisruptorPanda
Game 2prediction correct35:15
Thunder Awaken 71%The Cut 29%
The model gave 71% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 26:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaPakazs
KunkkaScourge McDuck
MarsDarkMago
Techiesbgod
WeaverSacred
Shadow DemonPanda
TuskMatthew
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 86%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2