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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ukumariloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 20 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 20 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 17 games
88%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 16 games
88%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 14 games
93%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 13 games
100%

Ukumari

Mirana
Mirana
Thiolicor · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Yuma · 10 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
4nalog · 9 games
67%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Gardick · 9 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Gardick · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
4nalog · 8 games
75%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Vitaly · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
587 picks · 452 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
422 picks · 906 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 580 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 467 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
348 picks · 179 bans
49%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
327 picks · 378 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
317 picks · 197 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
296 picks · 580 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength69% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
Thunder Awaken 84%Ukumari 16%
The model gave 84% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 27:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPakazs
46% · 90 games56% · 128 games
BloodseekerCarJua
Bloodseeker
Batrider
BatriderDarkMago
51% · 72 games42% · 92 games
ViperILICH-
Viper
Weaver
WeaverSacred
55% · 229 games51% · 194 games
RubickAlone
Rubick
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMatthew
46% · 139 games50% · 100 games
TuskKiri
Tusk
Abaddon
AbaddonPanda
53% · 90 games48% · 106 games
MarciYor
Marci
Game 2prediction correct46:3
Thunder Awaken 84%Ukumari 16%
The model gave 84% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 20:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerPakazs
37% · 129 games44% · 51 game
AlchemistAlone
Alchemist
Timbersaw
TimbersawSacred
43% · 116 games56% · 361 game
Monkey KingILICH-
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
53% · 194 games58% · 435 games
WeaverCarJua
Weaver
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
51% · 236 games57% · 101 game
ZeusKiri
Zeus
Bane
BanePanda
49% · 357 games51% · 84 games
BrewmasterYor
Brewmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 96%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2