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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 29 games
76%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 25 games
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 25 games
76%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 22 games
73%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 21 game
81%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 16 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 16 games
81%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 16 games
100%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 16 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 14 games
79%
Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 13 games
85%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 13 games
85%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
684 picks · 487 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
479 picks · 981 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
391 picks · 497 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
379 picks · 191 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
356 picks · 672 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
336 picks · 551 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
307 picks · 629 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
306 picks · 281 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 72%
Hero pool strength55% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total60% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:37
Thunder Awaken 44%Virtus.pro 56%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 50:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPakazs
48% · 148 games47% · 210 games
RazorRAMZES666
Razor
Pangolier
PangolierSacred
51% · 267 games52% · 308 games
TinygpK~
Tiny
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanda
54% · 140 games55% · 128 games
DoomDM
Doom
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
46% · 322 games44% · 91 game
Marciyamich
Marci
54% · 140 games
DisruptorXakoda
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct11:29
Thunder Awaken 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerPakazs
48% · 36 games57% · 84 games
JuggernautRAMZES666
Juggernaut
Pangolier
PangolierSacred
48% · 216 games55% · 266 games
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
44% · 220 games56% · 96 games
BatriderDM
Batrider
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanda
47% · 83 games56% · 31 game
DazzleXakoda
Dazzle
44% · 78 games
Marciyamich
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2