Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
55ratphylacterywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Hoodwink
bgod · 3 games
Lion
bgod · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Techies
bgod · 2 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
5ratphylactery
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
377 picks · 346 bans
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 322 bans
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 501 bans
Mars
305 picks · 430 bans
Techies
286 picks · 210 bans
Hoodwink
281 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
275 picks · 420 bans
Batrider
270 picks · 499 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% 5ratphylactery
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% 5ratphylactery
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TiltedBoys 41%5ratphylactery 59%
The model gave 59% on 5ratphylactery — the game was taken by 5ratphylactery.
Game 2prediction correct
TiltedBoys 41%5ratphylactery 59%
The model gave 59% on 5ratphylactery — the game was taken by 5ratphylactery.
Model check result
Model favorite5ratphylactery · 59%
Series result5ratphylactery 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2