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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDUB Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ezekiel · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
USH · 3 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Skyward · 2 games
50%

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sanctified · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
islA · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 612 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
613 picks · 534 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
553 picks · 1090 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
549 picks · 1334 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
477 picks · 531 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
471 picks · 961 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1158 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
450 picks · 641 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total63% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:11
TiltedBoys 41%CDUB Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerUSH
41% · 161 game50% · 120 games
MagnusDouble King
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderSkyward
54% · 271 game55% · 97 games
Void SpiritislA
Void Spirit
55% · 46 games
Legion CommanderMark
Legion Commander
58% · 62 games
Skywrath MageSanctified
Skywrath Mage
44% · 107 games
SilencerDuster
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed32:23
TiltedBoys 43%CDUB Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordUSH
49% · 74 games36% · 25 games
SvenDouble King
Sven
Techies
TechiesSkyward
53% · 154 games58% · 94 games
Void SpiritMark
Void Spirit
51% · 31 game
VisageislA
Visage
47% · 59 games
Spirit BreakerSanctified
Spirit Breaker
52% · 19 games
JakiroDuster
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 63%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2