PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CEContinuum Esports Goldloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Hoodwink
bgod · 4 games
Clinkzoften banned
bgod · 2 games
Lion
bgod · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Techies
bgod · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
bgod · 1 game
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Continuum Esports Gold
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
453 picks · 727 bans
Mars
422 picks · 683 bans
Techies
418 picks · 337 bans
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 527 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 886 bans
Rubick
381 picks · 180 bans
Crystal Maiden
380 picks · 174 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Continuum Esports Gold
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:5
TiltedBoys 62%Continuum Esports Gold 38%
The model gave 62% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 19:41.
Game 2prediction correct
TiltedBoys 62%Continuum Esports Gold 38%
The model gave 62% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 62%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2