Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EEminenceloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Eminence
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 283 bans
Marci
288 picks · 533 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 237 bans
Undying
262 picks · 454 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 487 bans
Primal Beast
226 picks · 532 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 316 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:41
TiltedBoys 52%Eminence 48%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Eminence in 47:26.
Game 2prediction correct42:26
TiltedBoys 52%Eminence 48%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 41:53.
Game 3prediction correct44:36
TiltedBoys 52%Eminence 48%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 1:11:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 52%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3