Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fart Studioswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Fart Studios
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 298 bans
Marci
281 picks · 526 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 250 bans
Undying
257 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 504 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 321 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
TiltedBoys 52%Fart Studios 48%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Fart Studios.
Game 2prediction missed
TiltedBoys 52%Fart Studios 48%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Fart Studios.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 52%
Series resultFart Studios 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2