Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Underlord
Ezekiel · 1 game
Lucky Bird
Treant Protector
Yadomi · 6 games
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
Tiny
BlackSoul · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 4 games
Linaoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Snapfire
Yadomi · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
955 picks · 653 bans
Tiny
661 picks · 464 bans
Nature's Prophet
576 picks · 921 bans
Tusk
555 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
532 picks · 530 bans
Snapfire
517 picks · 342 bans
Death Prophet
494 picks · 1083 bans
Clockwerk
466 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 21%
Hero pool strength67% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
TiltedBoys 64%Lucky Bird 36%
The model gave 64% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomEzekiel
SvenRises
38% · 33 games
Dragon KnightBlackSoul
58% · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionempyrean5
Game 2prediction correct36:33
TiltedBoys 59%Lucky Bird 41%
The model gave 59% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 46:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerEzekiel
TinyRises
56% · 5 games
HuskarBlackSoul
50% · 38 games
Disruptorempyrean5
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 71%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2