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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The Cutwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 5 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 3 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%

The Cut

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
25%
Silencer
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
29%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 6 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Chives · 5 games
80%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
high_shaggy · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
997 picks · 675 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 483 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
603 picks · 955 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
562 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
523 picks · 358 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1148 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
509 picks · 503 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
498 picks · 350 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)85% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:18
TiltedBoys 69%The Cut 31%
The model gave 69% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by The Cut in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterEzekiel
51% · 322 games56% · 23 games
BristlebackScourge McDuck
Bristleback
37% · 96 games
Death Prophethigh_shaggy
Death Prophet
45% · 7 games
Witch DoctorITALIANO GANGSTA
Witch Doctor
50% · 169 games
Tinybgod
Tiny
55% · 27 games
IoJubei
Io
Game 2prediction correct46:33
TiltedBoys 70%The Cut 30%
The model gave 70% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 1:04:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomEzekiel
53% · 357 games35% · 16 games
BristlebackScourge McDuck
Bristleback
49% · 69 games
BeastmasterITALIANO GANGSTA
Beastmaster
49% · 76 games
Death Prophethigh_shaggy
Death Prophet
54% · 125 games
Tinybgod
Tiny
48% · 71 game
MiranaJubei
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed27:31
TiltedBoys 62%The Cut 38%
The model gave 62% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by The Cut in 1:06:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderEzekiel
43% · 59 gameslittle data
Wraith KingScourge McDuck
Wraith King
55% · 7 games
Death Prophethigh_shaggy
Death Prophet
58% · 32 games
BroodmotherITALIANO GANGSTA
Broodmother
73% · 7 games
Skywrath Magebgod
Skywrath Mage
47% · 13 games
Treant ProtectorJubei
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 80%
Series resultThe Cut 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3