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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Cutwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ezekiel · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
USH · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Skyward · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%

The Cut

Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 11 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 10 games
30%
Silencer
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 10 games
70%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 10 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
high_shaggy · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
729 picks · 540 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
600 picks · 518 bans
53%
Doom
Doom
560 picks · 1096 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
558 picks · 1251 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
526 picks · 583 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
473 picks · 939 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
469 picks · 1078 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
455 picks · 653 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total51% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:37
TiltedBoys 50%The Cut 50%
The model gave 50% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 52:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordUSH
52% · 65 games60% · 50 games
MedusaScourge McDuck
Medusa
Batrider
BatriderSkyward
51% · 168 games40% · 53 games
WindrangerMTD
Windranger
46% · 121 game
Techiesbgod
Techies
47% · 9 games
Ancient Apparitionempyrean5
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct17:33
TiltedBoys 49%The Cut 51%
The model gave 51% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 54:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerUSH
48% · 154 games63% · 65 games
MedusaScourge McDuck
Medusa
Batrider
BatriderSkyward
46% · 315 games52% · 158 games
PangolierMTD
Pangolier
52% · 135 games
Techiesbgod
Techies
44% · 111 games
Silencerempyrean5
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 51%
Series resultThe Cut 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2