PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Timebombloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LULevel UP MarsBahiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Timebomb
No games played over 6 months.
Level UP MarsBahis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
410 picks · 658 bans
Mars
388 picks · 621 bans
Lion
386 picks · 359 bans
Techies
385 picks · 312 bans
Batrider
369 picks · 802 bans
Tiny
366 picks · 423 bans
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 357 bans
Hoodwink
339 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Timebomb
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Level UP MarsBahis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:39
Timebomb 47%Level UP MarsBahis 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP MarsBahis — the game was taken by Level UP MarsBahis in 33:57.
Game 2prediction correct13:38
Timebomb 47%Level UP MarsBahis 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP MarsBahis — the game was taken by Level UP MarsBahis in 31:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP MarsBahis · 53%
Series resultLevel UP MarsBahis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2