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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanwin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Spiky Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Titan

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
zzq · 1 game
0%

Spiky Gaming

Muerta
Muerta
TK · 13 games
23%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
13%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TK · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 410 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
454 picks · 575 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
422 picks · 526 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 226 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 690 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
404 picks · 459 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 594 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
359 picks · 932 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Spiky Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:44
Titan 68%Spiky Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Titan — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 49:40.
Game 2prediction correct26:18
Titan 68%Spiky Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 31:23.
Game 3prediction correct16:20
Titan 68%Spiky Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 31:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTitan · 68%
Series resultTitan 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3