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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Titan

Lion
Lion
mercy · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 1 game
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
flyfly · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Undyne_ · 1 game
0%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Setsu · 1 game
0%

Team Aster

Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Kaka · 12 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
SumaiL · 12 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 10 games
60%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Monet · 10 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Fantasy · 9 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Monet · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Xxs · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
253 picks · 430 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
223 picks · 353 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
209 picks · 282 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
206 picks · 98 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
206 picks · 192 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
188 picks · 359 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
182 picks · 510 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 45%
Hero pool strength63% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:39
Titan 44%Team Aster 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Titan in 48:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSetsu
54% · 191 game53% · 39 games
Troll Warlordpoyoyo
Troll Warlord
Abaddon
AbaddonELeVeN
46% · 57 games56% · 89 games
PuckEcho
Puck
Windranger
Windrangerflyfly
54% · 121 game53% · 109 games
Magnus生死
Magnus
Lion
Lionmercy
47% · 111 games48% · 258 games
RubickFrisk
Rubick
Pudge
PudgeUndyne_
46% · 62 games38% · 47 games
Vengeful SpiritFantasy
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct17:37
Titan 44%Team Aster 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusSetsu
53% · 40 games48% · 138 games
Keeper of the LightEcho
Keeper of the Light
Windranger
Windrangerflyfly
43% · 64 games43% · 35 games
Clinkzpoyoyo
Clinkz
Slardar
SlardarELeVeN
55% · 17 games53% · 24 games
Pudge生死
Pudge
Techies
Techiesmercy
56% · 148 games50% · 135 games
TuskFantasy
Tusk
Undying
UndyingUndyne_
47% · 141 game52% · 78 games
LionFrisk
Lion
Game 3prediction correct28:37
Titan 43%Team Aster 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunaflyfly
45% · 46 games48% · 45 games
Anti-Magepoyoyo
Anti-Mage
Doom
DoomELeVeN
48% · 116 games50% · 6 games
Arc WardenEcho
Arc Warden
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSetsu
53% · 36 games47% · 139 games
Centaur Warrunner生死
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
Tuskmercy
49% · 109 games58% · 77 games
GyrocopterFantasy
Gyrocopter
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritUndyne_
47% · 57 games53% · 97 games
LionFrisk
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 62%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3