PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yyybsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Titan
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
zzq · 1 game
yybs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
397 picks · 507 bans
Muerta
387 picks · 306 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 561 bans
Batrider
331 picks · 402 bans
Lion
329 picks · 159 bans
Beastmaster
324 picks · 739 bans
Gyrocopter
306 picks · 425 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% yybs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:41
Titan 78%yybs 22%
The model gave 78% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 41:05.
Game 2prediction correct25:13
Titan 78%yybs 22%
The model gave 78% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 24:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTitan · 78%
Series resultTitan 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2