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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
xsilearn · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
78%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 8 games
38%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
63%

Army Geniuses

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Varizh · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 9 games
22%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Varizh · 8 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
469 picks · 655 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
465 picks · 441 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
452 picks · 275 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 563 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
406 picks · 487 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 652 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 564 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
342 picks · 295 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
TNC Predator 49%Army Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by TNC Predator.
Game 2prediction missed
TNC Predator 49%Army Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by TNC Predator.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 51%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2