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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Lion
Lion
Tims · 14 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Armel · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Armel · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Boomy · 11 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gabbi · 9 games
56%

BOOM Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 19 games
68%
Lion
Lion
Hyde · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hyde · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 10 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hyde · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
470 picks · 189 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 593 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 884 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 305 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 246 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 439 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 406 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total51% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:10
TNC Predator 50%BOOM Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 45:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArmel
57% · 59 games56% · 74 games
TerrorbladeDreamocel
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightGabbi
45% · 99 games53% · 33 games
WindrangerMikoto
Windranger
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBok
53% · 14 games50% · 179 games
LionHyde
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixBoomy
44% · 119 games43% · 85 games
AbaddonKhezcute
Abaddon
Mirana
MiranaTims
55% · 80 games
Game 2prediction missed21:33
TNC Predator 51%BOOM Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomArmel
62% · 70 games52% · 70 games
TerrorbladeDreamocel
Terrorblade
Spectre
SpectreGabbi
40% · 45 games53% · 74 games
InvokerMikoto
Invoker
Leshrac
LeshracBok
47% · 96 games53% · 105 games
PhoenixHyde
Phoenix
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
55% · 158 games44% · 201 game
LionKhezcute
Lion
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernBoomy
40% · 81 game
Game 3prediction missed46:27
TNC Predator 48%BOOM Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 1:03:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaGabbi
47% · 42 games45% · 64 games
Phantom LancerDreamocel
Phantom Lancer
Puck
PuckArmel
54% · 160 games56% · 155 games
LeshracMikoto
Leshrac
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBok
49% · 146 games52% · 233 games
PhoenixKhezcute
Phoenix
Lion
LionTims
50% · 170 games48% · 167 games
ClockwerkHyde
Clockwerk
Enchantress
EnchantressBoomy
47% · 101 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 51%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3