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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Boomy · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Bok · 6 games
33%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 5 games
80%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 4 games
50%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Tims · 3 games
33%

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 19 games
53%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Bob · 16 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 13 games
77%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
42%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 11 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Bob · 10 games
50%
Viper
Vipersignature
Force · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 532 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
326 picks · 249 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
320 picks · 195 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
310 picks · 684 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
260 picks · 752 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
245 picks · 396 bans
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
234 picks · 150 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 325 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 29%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
TNC Predator 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Execration in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYoungGodLevi
57% · 43 games45% · 115 games
BatriderBob
Batrider
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYowe
47% · 89 games48% · 73 games
Outworld DestroyerKimizu
Outworld Destroyer
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerxiaoyu154
52% · 42 games54% · 97 games
EnchantressRR
Enchantress
Rubick
RubickPlayHard
54% · 79 games
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFebby
46% · 32 games
Game 2prediction correct14:33
TNC Predator 49%Execration 51%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYoungGodLevi
51% · 129 games51% · 187 games
BatriderBob
Batrider
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYowe
48% · 188 games45% · 327 games
TidehunterKimizu
Tidehunter
Mars
Marsxiaoyu154
48% · 226 games54% · 228 games
BaneRR
Bane
Weaver
WeaverPlayHard
55% · 154 games
Undying
UndyingFebby
50% · 45 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 52%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2