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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Made in Philippineswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 13 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
xsilearn · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
78%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Febby · 8 games
63%

Made in Philippines

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Rupido · 8 games
88%
Mars
Marssignature
JG · 8 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ken · 8 games
75%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Ken · 6 games
83%
Puck
Puckoften banned
JG · 6 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Teehee · 5 games
20%
Bane
Bane
Teehee · 4 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 464 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
437 picks · 671 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
416 picks · 531 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
394 picks · 266 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 842 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 565 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 642 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
328 picks · 656 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Made in Philippines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:20
TNC Predator 46%Made in Philippines 54%
The model gave 54% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackYowe
51% · 55 games52% · 50 games
WeaverKen
Weaver
Viper
ViperBok
45% · 118 games46% · 79 games
TinyJG
Tiny
Warlock
Warlockcml
62% · 45 games50% · 46 games
PangolierRupido
Pangolier
49% · 43 games
EnchantressTeehee
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct16:33
TNC Predator 47%Made in Philippines 53%
The model gave 53% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYowe
46% · 79 games60% · 69 games
Wraith KingKen
Wraith King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBok
57% · 121 game48% · 120 games
Ember SpiritJG
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
46% · 103 games54% · 76 games
TimbersawRupido
Timbersaw
32% · 38 games
JakiroTeehee
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct21:40
TNC Predator 45%Made in Philippines 55%
The model gave 55% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigma
EnigmaBok
56% · 36 games48% · 20 games
Faceless VoidKen
Faceless Void
Lifestealer
LifestealerYowe
60% · 69 games48% · 22 games
BatriderJG
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamancml
46% · 51 game47% · 80 games
KunkkaRupido
Kunkka
44% · 34 games
JakiroTeehee
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteMade in Philippines · 63%
Series resultMade in Philippines 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3