Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 12 games
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 12 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
Sand Kingsignature
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
xsilearn · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
xiaoyu154 · 7 games
Pucksignature
xsilearn · 7 games
Neon Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 11 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
Snapfire
Se · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 9 games
Miranasignature
Jing · 8 games
Rubick
NARMAN · 8 games
Weaversignature
Jing · 8 games
Kunkkasignature
MamangDaya · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 434 bans
Mars
467 picks · 690 bans
Dragon Knight
435 picks · 534 bans
Bane
430 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 601 bans
Storm Spirit
370 picks · 593 bans
Sand King
341 picks · 503 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 24%
Hero pool strength56% TNC Predator
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:8
TNC Predator 46%Neon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaYowe
EnchantressEnryu
DawnbreakerBok
VisageChuaN
Treant Protectorcml
BrewmasterSe
Game 2prediction correct36:9
TNC Predator 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeYowe
BeastmasterEnryu
EnigmaBok
Vengeful SpiritChuaN
Enchantresscml
DawnbreakerSe
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 53%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2